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Poker Strategy
Learning Poker
Implied Odds and Reverse Implied Odds (Day 9 Course Discussion)
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[QUOTE="ObbleeXY, post: 5791529, member: 437841"] I'll be the dissenting voice re: your QTo shove. I think it was not the correct move. Sure, when the hands were revealed it *looks* like the right decision, but you did not possess that info when you pushed. Now, I don't know your opponent... but with potential flush from the flop, or draw to one better than yours is easily possible. Your opponent will have a lot of AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK,AQ. AJ kind of hands some portion of the time here (though fewer of the Q holding hands due to blocker in your hand). This means that some portion of the time they'll beat you to a backdoor flush. And they'll beat you a portion of the time with a better kicker. They'll also beat you with AA,KK,QQ,JJ in many outcomes following this flop (Half of them also beating a backdoor flush). Now, if this hand had been played flop-turn-river... rather than flop all in, your hand would have slightly devalues on the turn. Your opponents range however could have (and did) improved with the King. AK, KK, KQ, KJ (well KX actually)...but I'm only highlighting a relatively tight range. AT would also have had you dominated with only a flush to save you. Chances are, your opponent would have made it hard on you to continue after the turn. But just on the off-chance you call ( or raise and get called) and get to see the river, once again you've punched air. Q8 is clearly possible, possibly even J8, though I would have expected the turn to be weak if the opponent held J8 (third pair) on the river...basically only a check check. So, the river 8 did kinda suck for you... but there were a lot of indicators that your hand was second best if this hand is played out flop-turn-river rather than flop all in. If you had <10BB, I might have understood this, but top pair with a Ten kicker is not a 30BB+ shove against a player with a tight range. In defence of your decision, however is the fact that you are out of position. This board would have been uncomfortable against a tight aggressive player with positional advantage. But then again, you simply might have had to fold on the turn, depending on aggression. If you ignore the hole cards, this board flops extremely well for a tight, positionally aware opponent. So in that regard, you could justify the shove as it removes position altogether. It is also fair to say, your opponent calling the shove with such a poor kicker to a flush board is questionable. But if you'd been caught with your hand in the cookie jar or blind stealing, wider ranges might call down a raise. Calling down a shove with Top Pair, weak kicker is somewhat ballsy against that flop without a single heart greater than an 8 in your hand or another Broadway card. So, based on the discussion above, I think you had sufficient information on the flop to proceed carefully, and then likely be forced to fold on the turn. Regards, ObbleeXY [/QUOTE]
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Implied Odds and Reverse Implied Odds (Day 9 Course Discussion)
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